Expected Number of Trials to get N Consecutive Heads
Given a number N. The task is to find the expected number of times a coin must be flipped to get N heads consecutively.
Example:
Input: N = 2
Output: 6
Input: N = 5
Output: 62
Approach:
The key is to observe that if we see a tail between any consecutive N flip, it breaks the streak for continuous heads and we have to start over again for N consecutive head.
Let the expected number of trial be X to get N consecutive heads. Below are the possible Cases:
- Case 1: If, in the 1st trial, a tail occurs then it means that we have wasted one trial and we will have to do X more trial to get N consecutive head. The probability of this event is 1/2 and the total number of trial required to get N consecutive head is (X + count of the previous trial wasted).
- Case 2: If, in the 2nd trial, a tail occurs then it means that we have wasted our all previous trial and we will have to do X more trial to get N consecutive head. The probability of this event is 1/4 and the total number of trials required to get N consecutive flips is (X + count of previous trial wasted).
- Case 3:If, in the 3rd trial, a tail occurs then it means that we have wasted our all previous trial and we will have to do X more trial to get N. The probability of this event is 1/8 and the total number of trials required to get N consecutive flips is (X + count of the previous trial wasted). This will continue until we get N consecutive heads.
- Case N: Similarly, if in the Nth trial, a tail occurs, then it means that we have wasted our all previous trial and we will have to do X more trial to get N. The probability of this event is 1/2N and the total number of trials required to get N consecutive flips is (X + count of the previous trial wasted).
From the above cases, the summation of all probability gives will gives the count of trials for N consecutive heads. Mathematically:
X = (1/2)*(X+1) + (1/4)*(X+2) + (1/8)*(X+3)+. . .+(1/2N)*(X+N) + (1/2N)*N
Solving the above equation for X. We have:
By opening the above expressions and arranging it we have: X = X(1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + . . . . . . 1/2N) + (1/2 + 2/4 + 3/8 . . . . . . . + N/2N + N/2N)
The first part of the above equations form Geometric Progression and second part of the above equations forms an Arithmetico Geometric Sequence. Solving the above sequences separately we have:
For Geometric Sequence:
Sum of GP series = 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + . . . . . . 1/2N
first term(a) is 1/2
common ratio(r) is 1/2
last term (nth term) is 1/2N which is also a * rN-1
Hence sum is given by:
Sum of GP series = (1/2)*( (1 – (1/2)N)/(1 – 1/2) ) using formula : (a * (1 – rN)) / (1 – r) since r < 1
Sum of GP series = (1 – (1/2)N)
For Arithmetico Geometric Sequence:
Let S = Sum of Arithmetico Geometric Sequence:
=> S = (1/2 + 2/4 + 3/8 + . . . . . . N/2N) …….(1)
Multiplying By 2, we get
=> 2S = (1 + 2/2 + 3/4 + . . . . . . . + N/2N-1) …….(2)
Subtracting the equation(1) from the equation(2), we get
=> S = (1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + . . . . . . 1/2N-1) – N/2N
=> S = sum of GP series – N/2N
=> S = (2 – (1/2)N-1)) – N/2N
Using the sum of the GP series and Arithmetico Geometric Sequence:
=> X = X*(1 – (1/2)N) + (2 – (1/2)N-1) – N/2N + N/2N
=> X = X*(1 – (1/2)N) + (2 – (1/2)N-1)
=> X*((1/2)N) = (2 – (1/2)N-1)
=> X = 2N+1 – 2
Now the above formula for X gives the number of trials requires getting N consecutive heads.
Below is the implementation of the above approach:
C++
// C++ implementation of the above approach #include "bits/stdc++.h" using namespace std; // Driver Code int main() { int N = 3; // Formula for number of trails for // N consecutive heads cout << pow (2, N + 1) - 2; return 0; } |
Java
// Java implementation of the above approach import java.io.*; class GFG{ // Driver Code public static void main(String[] args) { int N = 3 ; // Formula for number of trails for // N consecutive heads System.out.print(Math.pow( 2 , N + 1 ) - 2 ); } } // This code is contributed // by shivanisinghss2110 |
Python3
# Python3 implementation of the above approach # Driver code if __name__ = = '__main__' : N = 3 # Formula for number of trails for # N consecutive heads print ( pow ( 2 , N + 1 ) - 2 ) # This code is contributed by mohit kumar 29 |
C#
// C# implementation of the above approach using System; class GFG{ // Driver Code public static void Main() { int N = 3; // Formula for number of trails for // N consecutive heads Console.Write(Math.Pow(2, N + 1) - 2); } } // This code is contributed // by Code_Mech |
Javascript
<script> // Javascript implementation of the above approach // Driver Code let N = 3; // Formula for number of trails for // N consecutive heads document.write(Math.pow(2, N + 1) - 2); </script> |
14
Time Complexity: O(logn)
Auxiliary Space: O(1)
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